Guimaraes vs FCSB — UEFA Europa League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Guimaraes56%
FCSB21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Guimaraes creates 82% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Guimaraes ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Guimaraes at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches
FCSB away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Guimaraes attack 2.17 + FCSB defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.73
FCSB attack 1.40 + Guimaraes defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Guimaraes at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Lyon
Aston Villa
FC Midtjylland
Real Betis
FC Porto
SC Braga
SC Freiburg
AS Roma
Genk
Bologna
VfB Stuttgart
Ferencvarosi TC
Nottingham Forest
Plzen
FK Crvena Zvezda
Celta Vigo
PAOK
Lille
Fenerbahçe
Panathinaikos
Celtic
Ludogorets
Dinamo Zagreb
Brann
BSC Young Boys
Sturm GrazFCSB
GO Ahead Eagles
Feyenoord
FC Basel 1893
Red Bull Salzburg
Rangers
Nice
Utrecht
Malmo FF
Maccabi Tel AvivIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Guimaraes host FCSB on Thursday, 29 August 2019 at 19:00. The match is part of the UEFA Europa League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Guimaraes vs FCSB
Guimaraes beat FCSB 1-0 in UEFA Europa League on August 29, 2019.
Goals: E. Tapsoba (53' pen).
The match was played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in Guimarães.