Guimaraes 0–2 Casa Pia: Result & Stats

Guimaraes

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Casa Pia

2/24/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 23Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Guimaraes44%

×Draw27%

Casa Pia30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuimaraesExpected goals in this matchCasa Pia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.10

Guimaraes

1.40

Casa Pia

1.10

Guimaraes creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

1.13

creates per match

0.89

1.31

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Guimaraes

1.13

Casa Pia

0.89

allows per match

Guimaraes

1.31

Casa Pia

1.68

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Guimaraes+0.18scores more

Casa Pia-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes ↓

Casa Pia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Guimaraes or draw

70%

Guimaraes or Casa Pia

73%

Draw or Casa Pia

56%

Winning margin

Guimaraes wins by 2+

21%

Casa Pia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guimaraes 1+ goals

75%

Guimaraes 2+ goals

41%

Guimaraes 3+ goals

17%

Casa Pia 1+ goals

67%

Casa Pia 2+ goals

30%

Casa Pia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes (draw refunded)

60%

Casa Pia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Casa Pia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes attack 1.13 + Casa Pia defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Casa Pia attack 0.89 + Guimaraes defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guimaraes scores more

44%

level

27%

Casa Pia scores more

30%

Guimaraes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff