Guimaraes 3–2 Boavista: Result & Stats

Guimaraes

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Boavista

10/23/2022

Primeira Liga · Round 10Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Guimaraes51%

×Draw25%

Boavista24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuimaraesExpected goals in this matchBoavista

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.04

Guimaraes

1.63

Boavista

1.04

Guimaraes creates 57% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 119 away

1.57

creates per match

1.03

1.04

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Guimaraes

1.57

Boavista

1.03

allows per match

Guimaraes

1.04

Boavista

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guimaraes+0.00on par

Boavista+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes ↓

Boavista →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Guimaraes or draw

76%

Guimaraes or Boavista

75%

Draw or Boavista

49%

Winning margin

Guimaraes wins by 2+

27%

Boavista wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Guimaraes 1+ goals

80%

Guimaraes 2+ goals

48%

Guimaraes 3+ goals

22%

Boavista 1+ goals

65%

Boavista 2+ goals

28%

Boavista 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes (draw refunded)

68%

Boavista (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.04 · 136 matches

Boavista away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.68 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes attack 1.57 + Boavista defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.63

Boavista attack 1.03 + Guimaraes defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Guimaraes scores more

51%

level

25%

Boavista scores more

24%

Guimaraes at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff