Boavista 1–2 Guimaraes: Result & Stats

Boavista

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Guimaraes

3/9/2025

Primeira Liga · Round 25Estádio do Bessa Século XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Boavista36%

×Draw28%

Guimaraes36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoavistaExpected goals in this matchGuimaraes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.19

Boavista

1.18

Guimaraes

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 136 away

1.04

creates per match

1.07

1.30

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Boavista

1.04

Guimaraes

1.07

allows per match

Boavista

1.30

Guimaraes

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boavista+0.00on par

Guimaraes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista ↓

Guimaraes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Boavista or draw

64%

Boavista or Guimaraes

72%

Draw or Guimaraes

64%

Winning margin

Boavista wins by 2+

15%

Guimaraes wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Boavista 1+ goals

69%

Boavista 2+ goals

33%

Boavista 3+ goals

12%

Guimaraes 1+ goals

70%

Guimaraes 2+ goals

33%

Guimaraes 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Boavista (draw refunded)

50%

Guimaraes (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Guimaraes away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista attack 1.04 + Guimaraes defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Guimaraes attack 1.07 + Boavista defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Boavista scores more

36%

level

28%

Guimaraes scores more

36%

Boavista at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Boavista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff