Guimaraes 5–1 Aves: Result & Stats | Primeira Liga

Guimaraes

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Aves

9/14/2019

Primeira Liga · Round 5Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Guimaraes58%

×Draw23%

Aves19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuimaraesExpected goals in this matchAves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.92

Guimaraes

1.79

Aves

0.92

Guimaraes creates 95% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 34 away

1.57

creates per match

0.79

1.04

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Guimaraes

1.57

Aves

0.79

allows per match

Guimaraes

1.04

Aves

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guimaraes+0.00on par

Aves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes ↓

Aves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Guimaraes or draw

81%

Guimaraes or Aves

77%

Draw or Aves

42%

Winning margin

Guimaraes wins by 2+

33%

Aves wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Guimaraes 1+ goals

83%

Guimaraes 2+ goals

53%

Guimaraes 3+ goals

26%

Aves 1+ goals

60%

Aves 2+ goals

23%

Aves 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes (draw refunded)

75%

Aves (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.04 · 136 matches

Aves away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes attack 1.57 + Aves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Aves attack 0.79 + Guimaraes defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Guimaraes scores more

58%

level

23%

Aves scores more

19%

Guimaraes at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff