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Guimaraes B vs Trofense — Liga 3 2021

Guimaraes B
Guimaraes B
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Trofense
Trofense
9/28/2025Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 6Campo Nº5 Complexo Desportivo Dr. António Pimenta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Guimaraes B37%
×Draw28%
Trofense34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guimaraes B
1.19
Trofense
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

creates per match

Guimaraes B
1.23
Trofense
0.98

allows per match

Guimaraes B
1.27
Trofense
1.14

finishing

Guimaraes B+0.00on par
Trofense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes B ↓

Trofense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guimaraes B or draw
66%
Guimaraes B or Trofense
72%
Draw or Trofense
63%

Winning margin

Guimaraes B wins by 2+
16%
Trofense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Guimaraes B 1+ goals
70%
Guimaraes B 2+ goals
33%
Guimaraes B 3+ goals
12%
Trofense 1+ goals
68%
Trofense 2+ goals
31%
Trofense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes B (draw refunded)
52%
Trofense (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes B at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 44 matches

Trofense away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes B attack 1.23 + Trofense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Trofense attack 0.98 + Guimaraes B defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guimaraes B scores more
37%
level
28%
Trofense scores more
34%

Guimaraes B at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guimaraes B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guimaraes B vs Trofense

Trofense beat Guimaraes B 2-1 in Liga 3 on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Nº5 Complexo Desportivo Dr. António Pimenta in Guimarães.