Guimaraes B 2–2 SC Braga B: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Guimaraes B

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

SC Braga B

J. Bahamboula 63'

Gonçalo Nogueira 31'

Yan Said 32'

Zé Pedro 14'

10/8/2022

Liga 3 · Round 5Campo Gémeos Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Guimaraes B37%

×Draw27%

SC Braga B36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guimaraes BExpected goals in this matchSC Braga B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.24

Guimaraes B

1.25

SC Braga B

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 73 away

1.23

creates per match

1.21

1.27

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Guimaraes B

1.23

SC Braga B

1.21

allows per match

Guimaraes B

1.27

SC Braga B

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guimaraes B+0.00on par

SC Braga B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes B ↓

SC Braga B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Guimaraes B or draw

64%

Guimaraes B or SC Braga B

73%

Draw or SC Braga B

63%

Winning margin

Guimaraes B wins by 2+

16%

SC Braga B wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Guimaraes B 1+ goals

71%

Guimaraes B 2+ goals

36%

Guimaraes B 3+ goals

13%

SC Braga B 1+ goals

71%

SC Braga B 2+ goals

35%

SC Braga B 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes B (draw refunded)

50%

SC Braga B (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes B at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 44 matches

SC Braga B away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes B attack 1.23 + SC Braga B defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

SC Braga B attack 1.21 + Guimaraes B defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guimaraes B scores more

37%

level

27%

SC Braga B scores more

36%

Guimaraes B at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guimaraes B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Zé Pedro

31'

Gonçalo Nogueira

32'

Yan Said

37'

Ni← M. Woledzi

55'

André Lacximicant← Miguel Falé

55'

David Veiga← Vasco Moreira

61'

Mathys Jean-Marie← Yan Said

63'

J. Bahamboula

67'

Geovani← Alberto Soto

67'

Sander Ramires← Gonçalo Pinto

67'

Eirô← Berna

77'

Francisco Ribeiro← Diogo Ressurreição

77'

João Pedro← João Ricciulli

Guimaraes

SC

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⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

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⚽

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⚽

Manager: Nuno Barbosa

37'▲Ni←▼M. Woledzi

67'▲Geovani←▼Alberto Soto

67'▲Sander Ramires←▼Gonçalo Pinto

77'▲Francisco Ribeiro←▼Diogo Ressurreição

77'▲João Pedro←▼João Ricciulli

Guimaraes B substitutes

NiGeovaniRamiresRibeiroPedro

Manager: Custodio

55'▲André Lacximicant←▼Miguel Falé

55'▲David Veiga←▼Vasco Moreira

61'▲Mathys Jean-Marie←▼Yan Said

67'▲Eirô←▼Berna

SC Braga B substitutes

LacximicantVeigaJean-MarieEirô