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Guimaraes B vs Cova De Piedade — Segunda Liga 2018

Guimaraes B
Guimaraes B
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
8/12/2018Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 1Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques (Guimarães)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Guimaraes B44%
×Draw27%
Cova De Piedade29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guimaraes B
1.40
Cova De Piedade
1.09

Guimaraes B creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 46 away

creates per match

Guimaraes B
1.18
Cova De Piedade
0.83

allows per match

Guimaraes B
1.35
Cova De Piedade
1.63

finishing

Guimaraes B+0.00on par
Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes B ↓

Cova De Piedade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guimaraes B or draw
71%
Guimaraes B or Cova De Piedade
73%
Draw or Cova De Piedade
56%

Winning margin

Guimaraes B wins by 2+
21%
Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Guimaraes B 1+ goals
75%
Guimaraes B 2+ goals
41%
Guimaraes B 3+ goals
17%
Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
66%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
30%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes B (draw refunded)
60%
Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes B at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes B attack 1.18 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cova De Piedade attack 0.83 + Guimaraes B defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guimaraes B scores more
44%
level
27%
Cova De Piedade scores more
29%

Guimaraes B at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guimaraes B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Guimaraes B 0–1 Cova De Piedade

Cova De Piedade beat Guimaraes B 1-0 in Segunda Liga on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques (Guimarães).