Guimaraes B 0–2 Canelas 2010: Result & Stats

Guimaraes B

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Canelas 2010

8/21/2022

Liga 3 · Round 1Campo Gémeos Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Guimaraes B39%

×Draw28%

Canelas 201033%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guimaraes BExpected goals in this matchCanelas 2010

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.10

Guimaraes B

1.21

Canelas 2010

1.10

Guimaraes B creates 10% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 42 away

1.23

creates per match

0.93

1.27

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Guimaraes B

1.23

Canelas 2010

0.93

allows per match

Guimaraes B

1.27

Canelas 2010

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guimaraes B+0.00on par

Canelas 2010+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes B ↓

Canelas 2010 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Guimaraes B or draw

67%

Guimaraes B or Canelas 2010

72%

Draw or Canelas 2010

61%

Winning margin

Guimaraes B wins by 2+

17%

Canelas 2010 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Guimaraes B 1+ goals

70%

Guimaraes B 2+ goals

34%

Guimaraes B 3+ goals

12%

Canelas 2010 1+ goals

67%

Canelas 2010 2+ goals

30%

Canelas 2010 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes B (draw refunded)

54%

Canelas 2010 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes B at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 44 matches

Canelas 2010 away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes B attack 1.23 + Canelas 2010 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Canelas 2010 attack 0.93 + Guimaraes B defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guimaraes B scores more

39%

level

28%

Canelas 2010 scores more

33%

Guimaraes B at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guimaraes B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff