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Güímar vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Güímar
Güímar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
8/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 1Estadio de Tasagaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Güímar31%
×Draw26%
UD San Fernando43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Güímar
1.20
UD San Fernando
1.47

UD San Fernando creates 23% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 76 away

creates per match

Güímar
1.43
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

Güímar
1.68
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

Güímar+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güímar ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Güímar or draw
57%
Güímar or UD San Fernando
74%
Draw or UD San Fernando
69%

Winning margin

Güímar wins by 2+
13%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Güímar 1+ goals
70%
Güímar 2+ goals
34%
Güímar 3+ goals
12%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
77%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
43%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Güímar (draw refunded)
42%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Güímar at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Güímar attack 1.43 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.20

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Güímar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Güímar scores more
31%
level
26%
UD San Fernando scores more
43%

UD San Fernando at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Güímar 1 – 1 UD San Fernando

Güímar and UD San Fernando drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de Tasagaya in Güímar.