Güímar vs Tenerife II: Preview & Prediction

Güímar

CANC

00:00

Tenerife II

4/5/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 32Estadio de Tasagaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Güímar30%

×Draw25%

Tenerife II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GüímarExpected goals in this matchTenerife II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.57

Güímar

1.25

Tenerife II

1.57

Tenerife II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 74 away

1.43

creates per match

1.46

1.68

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Güímar

1.43

Tenerife II

1.46

allows per match

Güímar

1.68

Tenerife II

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Güímar+0.00on par

Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güímar ↓

Tenerife II →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Güímar or draw

55%

Güímar or Tenerife II

75%

Draw or Tenerife II

70%

Winning margin

Güímar wins by 2+

13%

Tenerife II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Güímar 1+ goals

71%

Güímar 2+ goals

36%

Güímar 3+ goals

13%

Tenerife II 1+ goals

79%

Tenerife II 2+ goals

46%

Tenerife II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Güímar (draw refunded)

40%

Tenerife II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Güímar at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Güímar attack 1.43 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + Güímar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Güímar scores more

30%

level

25%

Tenerife II scores more

45%

Tenerife II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Güímar vs Tenerife II — Match Preview

Güímar face Tenerife II on April 5, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Güímar host Tenerife II at Estadio de Tasagaya.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Güímar vs Tenerife II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Güímar vs Tenerife II — Match Preview