Guillermo Brown 2–2 Temperley: Result & Stats

Guillermo Brown

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Temperley

M. Pino 90+5' (pen)

N. Tecilla 12'

M. Pino 28' (OG)

L. Nieto 10'

4/5/2023

Primera Nacional · Group A - 10Estadio Raúl Conti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Guillermo Brown39%

×Draw32%

Temperley29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guillermo BrownExpected goals in this matchTemperley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.83

Guillermo Brown

1.02

Temperley

0.83

Guillermo Brown creates 23% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 127 away

1.02

creates per match

0.76

0.91

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Guillermo Brown

1.02

Temperley

0.76

allows per match

Guillermo Brown

0.91

Temperley

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par

Temperley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guillermo Brown ↓

Temperley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Guillermo Brown or draw

71%

Guillermo Brown or Temperley

68%

Draw or Temperley

61%

Winning margin

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+

15%

Temperley wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals

64%

Guillermo Brown 2+ goals

27%

Guillermo Brown 3+ goals

8%

Temperley 1+ goals

56%

Temperley 2+ goals

20%

Temperley 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)

58%

Temperley (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guillermo Brown at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.91 · 100 matches

Temperley away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.01 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guillermo Brown attack 1.02 + Temperley defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Temperley attack 0.76 + Guillermo Brown defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guillermo Brown scores more

39%

level

32%

Temperley scores more

29%

Guillermo Brown at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guillermo Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

L. Nieto

12'

N. Tecilla

28'

M. PinoOwn goal

41'

T. Torrielli← M. Fernández

41'

S. Velásquez← M. Valor

52'

R. Gonzalez

64'

M. Sanchez

64'

M. Luayza← T. Assennato

64'

J. Rodríguez← E. Rosales

67'

J. Busto← M. Sánchez

70'

J. Rodriguez

70'

L. Baldunciel

73'

M. Rolle← A. González

77'

77'

86'

90'

90+5'

M. PinoPenalty

Guillermo

Temperley

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽🥅

Manager: G. Esmerado

41'▲T. Torrielli←▼M. Fernández

41'▲S. Velásquez←▼M. Valor

64'▲M. Luayza←▼T. Assennato

64'▲J. Rodríguez←▼E. Rosales

73'▲M. Rolle←▼A. González

Guillermo Brown substitutes

TorrielliVelásquezLuayzaRodríguezRolleRomeroWerroHernándezGarcía

Manager: J. Bianco

67'▲J. Busto←▼M. Sánchez

77'▲F. Ayunta←▼L. López

77'▲E. Coacci←▼L. Nieto

86'▲F. Nouet←▼F. Krüger

Temperley substitutes

BustoAyuntaCoacciNouetMaldonadoBojanichMartínezPazNavarro