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Guillermo Brown vs Quilmes — Primera Nacional 2026

Guillermo Brown
Guillermo Brown
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Quilmes
Quilmes
4/14/2019Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 24Estadio Raúl Conti (Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Guillermo Brown38%
×Draw32%
Quilmes30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guillermo Brown
1.03
Quilmes
0.88

Guillermo Brown creates 17% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 129 away

creates per match

Guillermo Brown
1.00
Quilmes
0.88

allows per match

Guillermo Brown
0.88
Quilmes
1.06

finishing

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par
Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guillermo Brown ↓

Quilmes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Guillermo Brown or draw
70%
Guillermo Brown or Quilmes
68%
Draw or Quilmes
62%

Winning margin

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+
15%
Quilmes wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals
64%
Guillermo Brown 2+ goals
28%
Guillermo Brown 3+ goals
9%
Quilmes 1+ goals
59%
Quilmes 2+ goals
22%
Quilmes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)
56%
Quilmes (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guillermo Brown at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 100 matches

Quilmes away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.06 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guillermo Brown attack 1.00 + Quilmes defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Quilmes attack 0.88 + Guillermo Brown defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guillermo Brown scores more
38%
level
32%
Quilmes scores more
30%

Guillermo Brown at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guillermo Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Guillermo Brown 2–1 Quilmes

Guillermo Brown beat Quilmes 2-1 in Primera Nacional on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Conti (Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut).