Guillermo Brown 2–0 Instituto Cordoba

Guillermo Brown

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Instituto Cordoba

E. Obregón 90+2'

R. Pérez 22'

6/5/2022

Primera Nacional · Round 18Estadio Raúl Conti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Guillermo Brown38%

×Draw31%

Instituto Cordoba31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guillermo BrownExpected goals in this matchInstituto Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.94

Guillermo Brown

1.08

Instituto Cordoba

0.94

Guillermo Brown creates 15% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 68 away

1.03

creates per match

0.96

0.91

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Guillermo Brown

1.03

Instituto Cordoba

0.96

allows per match

Guillermo Brown

0.91

Instituto Cordoba

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par

Instituto Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guillermo Brown ↓

Instituto Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Guillermo Brown or draw

69%

Guillermo Brown or Instituto Cordoba

69%

Draw or Instituto Cordoba

62%

Winning margin

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+

15%

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals

66%

Guillermo Brown 2+ goals

29%

Guillermo Brown 3+ goals

10%

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

61%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

24%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)

55%

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guillermo Brown at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.91 · 102 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guillermo Brown attack 1.03 + Instituto Cordoba defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Instituto Cordoba attack 0.96 + Guillermo Brown defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guillermo Brown scores more

38%

level

31%

Instituto Cordoba scores more

31%

Guillermo Brown at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guillermo Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

F. Rodriguez

22'

R. Pérez

62'

D. Becker← S. Rodríguez

62'

G. Rodríguez← J. Molina

65'

F. Ciampichetti← S. González

72'

78'

84'

85'

90+2'

Guillermo

Instituto

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: A. Yllana

65'▲F. Ciampichetti←▼S. González

78'▲C. García←▼A. Colazo

85'▲M. Rolle←▼J. Silva

Guillermo Brown substitutes

CiampichettiGarcíaRollePerroneGonzálezRodríguezVillagra

Manager: L. Bovaglio

62'▲D. Becker←▼S. Rodríguez

62'▲G. Rodríguez←▼J. Molina

84'▲J. Arzura←▼L. Monje

Instituto Cordoba substitutes

BeckerRodríguezArzuraDellarossaFerreiraBilbaoArguello

Match Recap: Guillermo Brown vs Instituto Cordoba

Guillermo Brown beat Instituto Cordoba 2-0 in Primera Nacional on June 5, 2022.

Goals: R. Pérez (22'), E. Obregón (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Conti in Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut.

Guillermo Brown vs Instituto Cordoba — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Guillermo Brown vs Instituto Cordoba