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Guillermo Brown vs Gimnasia Jujuy — Primera Nacional 2026

Guillermo Brown
Guillermo Brown
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnasia Jujuy
Gimnasia Jujuy
7/14/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 23Estadio Raúl Conti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Guillermo Brown44%
×Draw30%
Gimnasia Jujuy26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guillermo Brown
1.17
Gimnasia Jujuy
0.82

Guillermo Brown creates 43% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 128 away

creates per match

Guillermo Brown
1.00
Gimnasia Jujuy
0.76

allows per match

Guillermo Brown
0.88
Gimnasia Jujuy
1.33

finishing

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par
Gimnasia Jujuy+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guillermo Brown ↓

Gimnasia Jujuy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Guillermo Brown or draw
74%
Guillermo Brown or Gimnasia Jujuy
70%
Draw or Gimnasia Jujuy
56%

Winning margin

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+
19%
Gimnasia Jujuy wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals
69%
Guillermo Brown 2+ goals
33%
Guillermo Brown 3+ goals
11%
Gimnasia Jujuy 1+ goals
56%
Gimnasia Jujuy 2+ goals
20%
Gimnasia Jujuy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)
63%
Gimnasia Jujuy (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guillermo Brown at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 100 matches

Gimnasia Jujuy away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.33 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guillermo Brown attack 1.00 + Gimnasia Jujuy defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Gimnasia Jujuy attack 0.76 + Guillermo Brown defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guillermo Brown scores more
44%
level
30%
Gimnasia Jujuy scores more
26%

Guillermo Brown at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guillermo Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Guillermo Brown 0–0 Gimnasia Jujuy

Guillermo Brown and Gimnasia Jujuy drew 0-0 in Primera Nacional on July 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Conti in Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut.