Guillermo Brown 2–0 Estudiantes S.l.

Guillermo Brown

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estudiantes S.l.

N. Rizzo 70' (pen)

E. Moreno 48'

4/1/2018

Primera Nacional · Round 21Estadio Raúl Conti (Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Guillermo Brown47%

×Draw31%

Estudiantes S.l.22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guillermo BrownExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes S.l.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.71

Guillermo Brown

1.17

Estudiantes S.l.

0.71

Guillermo Brown creates 65% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 6 away

1.01

creates per match

0.50

0.92

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Guillermo Brown

1.01

Estudiantes S.l.

0.50

allows per match

Guillermo Brown

0.92

Estudiantes S.l.

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guillermo Brown ↓

Estudiantes S.l. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Guillermo Brown or draw

78%

Guillermo Brown or Estudiantes S.l.

69%

Draw or Estudiantes S.l.

53%

Winning margin

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+

20%

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals

69%

Guillermo Brown 2+ goals

33%

Guillermo Brown 3+ goals

11%

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals

51%

Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals

16%

Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)

68%

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guillermo Brown at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.92 · 77 matches

Estudiantes S.l. away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guillermo Brown attack 1.01 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Estudiantes S.l. attack 0.50 + Guillermo Brown defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Guillermo Brown scores more

47%

level

31%

Estudiantes S.l. scores more

22%

Guillermo Brown at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Guillermo Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

N. Rizzo← M. Rojo

48'

E. Moreno

52'

I. Roldán← F. Freire

70'

I. Silva← E. Moreno

70'

N. RizzoPenalty

79'

L. Puig← F. Palma

80'

R. Izco← S. Rodríguez

89'

J. Marital← B. Cuello

Guillermo

Estudiantes

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: H. Barrientos

17'▲N. Rizzo←▼M. Rojo

70'▲I. Silva←▼E. Moreno

79'▲L. Puig←▼F. Palma

Guillermo Brown substitutes

RizzoSilvaPuigPruzzoMartínezBilbaoGuerreiro

Manager: G. Gómez

52'▲I. Roldán←▼F. Freire

80'▲R. Izco←▼S. Rodríguez

89'▲J. Marital←▼B. Cuello

Estudiantes S.l. substitutes

RoldánIzcoMaritalSosaCuerdoCoriaAguilar

Primera Nacional: Guillermo Brown 2–0 Estudiantes S.l.

Guillermo Brown beat Estudiantes S.l. 2-0 in Primera Nacional on April 1, 2018.

Goals: E. Moreno (48'), N. Rizzo (70' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Conti (Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut).

Guillermo Brown vs Estudiantes S.l. — Primera Nacional 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Nacional: Guillermo Brown 2–0 Estudiantes S.l.