Guijuelo 2–0 UD Santa Marta: Result & Stats

Guijuelo

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

UD Santa Marta

5/24/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Guijuelo64%

×Draw22%

UD Santa Marta13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuijueloExpected goals in this matchUD Santa Marta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.66

Guijuelo

1.79

UD Santa Marta

0.66

Guijuelo creates 171% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 115 away

2.09

creates per match

0.97

0.35

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Guijuelo

2.09

UD Santa Marta

0.97

allows per match

Guijuelo

0.35

UD Santa Marta

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

UD Santa Marta →

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw

87%

Guijuelo or UD Santa Marta

78%

Draw or UD Santa Marta

36%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+

38%

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals

83%

Guijuelo 2+ goals

53%

Guijuelo 3+ goals

26%

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals

48%

UD Santa Marta 2+ goals

14%

UD Santa Marta 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)

83%

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.35 · 34 matches

UD Santa Marta away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 2.09 + UD Santa Marta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.79

UD Santa Marta attack 0.97 + Guijuelo defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Guijuelo scores more

64%

level

22%

UD Santa Marta scores more

13%

Guijuelo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff