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Guijuelo vs UD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
CANC
00:00
UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
4/19/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guijuelo44%
×Draw30%
UD Logroñés25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
1.17
UD Logroñés
0.81

Guijuelo creates 44% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 32 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
1.43
UD Logroñés
1.06

allows per match

Guijuelo
0.57
UD Logroñés
0.91

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

UD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
75%
Guijuelo or UD Logroñés
70%
Draw or UD Logroñés
56%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
19%
UD Logroñés wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
69%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
33%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
11%
UD Logroñés 1+ goals
56%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
19%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
63%
UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 1.43 + UD Logroñés defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.17

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Guijuelo defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guijuelo scores more
44%
level
30%
UD Logroñés scores more
25%

Guijuelo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guijuelo vs UD Logroñés — Match Preview

Guijuelo face UD Logroñés on April 19, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Guijuelo host UD Logroñés at Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.