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Guijuelo vs Salamanca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Salamanca II
Salamanca II
11/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 7Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Guijuelo62%
×Draw23%
Salamanca II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
1.71
Salamanca II
0.68

Guijuelo creates 151% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 61 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
2.09
Salamanca II
1.00

allows per match

Guijuelo
0.35
Salamanca II
1.34

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
Salamanca II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Salamanca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
86%
Guijuelo or Salamanca II
77%
Draw or Salamanca II
38%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
35%
Salamanca II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
82%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
51%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
24%
Salamanca II 1+ goals
49%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
15%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
81%
Salamanca II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.35 · 34 matches

Salamanca II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 2.09 + Salamanca II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.71

Salamanca II attack 1.00 + Guijuelo defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Guijuelo scores more
62%
level
23%
Salamanca II scores more
14%

Guijuelo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Guijuelo 0–0 Salamanca II

Guijuelo and Salamanca II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos in Guijuelo.