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Guijuelo vs Real Valladolid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
CANC
22:00
Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
5/9/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guijuelo51%
×Draw28%
Real Valladolid II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
1.36
Real Valladolid II
0.78

Guijuelo creates 74% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
1.43
Real Valladolid II
1.00

allows per match

Guijuelo
0.57
Real Valladolid II
1.29

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Real Valladolid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
79%
Guijuelo or Real Valladolid II
72%
Draw or Real Valladolid II
49%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
24%
Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
74%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
39%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
16%
Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
54%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
18%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
70%
Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 1.43 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Real Valladolid II attack 1.00 + Guijuelo defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Guijuelo scores more
51%
level
28%
Real Valladolid II scores more
21%

Guijuelo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guijuelo face Real Valladolid II (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Guijuelo hosting Real Valladolid II. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Guijuelo host Real Valladolid II at Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.