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Guijuelo vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
CANC
00:00
Real Unión
Real Unión
4/5/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guijuelo49%
×Draw29%
Real Unión22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
1.29
Real Unión
0.76

Guijuelo creates 70% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 46 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
1.43
Real Unión
0.96

allows per match

Guijuelo
0.57
Real Unión
1.15

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
78%
Guijuelo or Real Unión
71%
Draw or Real Unión
51%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
23%
Real Unión wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
72%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
37%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
14%
Real Unión 1+ goals
53%
Real Unión 2+ goals
18%
Real Unión 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
69%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 1.43 + Real Unión defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Real Unión attack 0.96 + Guijuelo defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Guijuelo scores more
49%
level
29%
Real Unión scores more
22%

Guijuelo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guijuelo face Real Unión (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Guijuelo hosting Real Unión. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Guijuelo host Real Unión at Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.