Guijuelo 3–0 Real Sociedad II: Result & Stats

Guijuelo

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Sociedad II

1/26/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guijuelo45%

×Draw28%

Real Sociedad II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuijueloExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.92

Guijuelo

1.30

Real Sociedad II

0.92

Guijuelo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 46 away

1.43

creates per match

1.26

0.57

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Guijuelo

1.43

Real Sociedad II

1.26

allows per match

Guijuelo

0.57

Real Sociedad II

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw

74%

Guijuelo or Real Sociedad II

72%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

55%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+

21%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals

73%

Guijuelo 2+ goals

37%

Guijuelo 3+ goals

14%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

60%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

23%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)

63%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 1.43 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Real Sociedad II attack 1.26 + Guijuelo defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guijuelo scores more

45%

level

28%

Real Sociedad II scores more

26%

Guijuelo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff