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Guijuelo vs Real Ávila — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Real Ávila
Real Ávila
4/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 33Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Guijuelo55%
×Draw26%
Real Ávila18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
1.50
Real Ávila
0.74

Guijuelo creates 103% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 76 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
2.09
Real Ávila
1.14

allows per match

Guijuelo
0.35
Real Ávila
0.91

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
Real Ávila+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Real Ávila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
82%
Guijuelo or Real Ávila
74%
Draw or Real Ávila
45%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
29%
Real Ávila wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
78%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
44%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
19%
Real Ávila 1+ goals
52%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
17%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
75%
Real Ávila (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.35 · 34 matches

Real Ávila away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.91 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 2.09 + Real Ávila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.50

Real Ávila attack 1.14 + Guijuelo defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Guijuelo scores more
55%
level
26%
Real Ávila scores more
18%

Guijuelo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guijuelo vs Real Ávila

Guijuelo beat Real Ávila 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos in Guijuelo.