Guijuelo 1–1 Racing Ferrol: Result & Stats

Guijuelo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Racing Ferrol

12/12/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Guijuelo30%

×Draw31%

Racing Ferrol39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuijueloExpected goals in this matchRacing Ferrol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.05

Guijuelo

0.89

Racing Ferrol

1.05

Racing Ferrol creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 83 away

0.85

creates per match

1.10

1.00

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Guijuelo

0.85

Racing Ferrol

1.10

allows per match

Guijuelo

1.00

Racing Ferrol

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Racing Ferrol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw

61%

Guijuelo or Racing Ferrol

69%

Draw or Racing Ferrol

70%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+

10%

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals

59%

Guijuelo 2+ goals

22%

Guijuelo 3+ goals

6%

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

65%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

28%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)

44%

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 0.85 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + Guijuelo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guijuelo scores more

30%

level

31%

Racing Ferrol scores more

39%

Racing Ferrol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff