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Guijuelo vs Pontevedra — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pontevedra
Pontevedra
3/28/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Guijuelo38%
×Draw30%
Pontevedra32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
1.10
Pontevedra
1.00

Guijuelo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 65 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
0.85
Pontevedra
1.00

allows per match

Guijuelo
1.00
Pontevedra
1.35

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
Pontevedra+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Pontevedra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
68%
Guijuelo or Pontevedra
70%
Draw or Pontevedra
62%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
15%
Pontevedra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
67%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
30%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
10%
Pontevedra 1+ goals
63%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
26%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
54%
Pontevedra (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Pontevedra away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 0.85 + Pontevedra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Pontevedra attack 1.00 + Guijuelo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guijuelo scores more
38%
level
30%
Pontevedra scores more
32%

Guijuelo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Guijuelo 2–1 Pontevedra

Guijuelo beat Pontevedra 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos in Guijuelo.