Guijuelo 1–2 Osasuna II: Result & Stats

Guijuelo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Osasuna II

Pepe Carmona 87'

Oier Calvillo 81'

José Hualde 63' (pen)

10/27/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guijuelo54%

×Draw27%

Osasuna II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuijueloExpected goals in this matchOsasuna II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.76

Guijuelo

1.46

Osasuna II

0.76

Guijuelo creates 92% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 46 away

1.43

creates per match

0.96

0.57

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Guijuelo

1.43

Osasuna II

0.96

allows per match

Guijuelo

0.57

Osasuna II

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Osasuna II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw

80%

Guijuelo or Osasuna II

73%

Draw or Osasuna II

46%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+

27%

Osasuna II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals

77%

Guijuelo 2+ goals

43%

Guijuelo 3+ goals

18%

Osasuna II 1+ goals

53%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

18%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)

73%

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 1.43 + Osasuna II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Osasuna II attack 0.96 + Guijuelo defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Guijuelo scores more

54%

level

27%

Osasuna II scores more

20%

Guijuelo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Jonathan González← Marcos Mendes

63'

Cristóbal Gil← Luis Lara

63'

Pepe Carmona← Y. Fékir

63'

José HualdePenalty

67'

Dani Hernández← R. Ochiroşii

80'

Aimar Oroz← José Hualde

81'

Oier Calvillo

84'

Adrián Aranguren← Javi Martínez

87'

Pepe Carmona

Guijuelo

Osasuna

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ángel Sánchez

63'▲Cristóbal Gil←▼Luis Lara

63'▲Pepe Carmona←▼Y. Fékir

67'▲Dani Hernández←▼R. Ochiroşii

Guijuelo substitutes

GilCarmonaHernándezRubénDiesteBolañosVallejo

Manager: Santi Castillejo

59'▲Jonathan González←▼Marcos Mendes

80'▲Aimar Oroz←▼José Hualde

84'▲Adrián Aranguren←▼Javi Martínez

Osasuna II substitutes

GonzálezOrozArangurenMeoquiJiménezValenciaGoñi