Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guijuelo vs Numancia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Numancia II
Numancia II
3/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 29Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Guijuelo66%
×Draw22%
Numancia II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
1.83
Numancia II
0.65

Guijuelo creates 182% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 76 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
2.09
Numancia II
0.95

allows per match

Guijuelo
0.35
Numancia II
1.58

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
Numancia II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Numancia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
87%
Guijuelo or Numancia II
78%
Draw or Numancia II
34%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
39%
Numancia II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
84%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
54%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
28%
Numancia II 1+ goals
48%
Numancia II 2+ goals
14%
Numancia II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
84%
Numancia II (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.35 · 34 matches

Numancia II away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 2.09 + Numancia II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.83

Numancia II attack 0.95 + Guijuelo defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Guijuelo scores more
66%
level
22%
Numancia II scores more
13%

Guijuelo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guijuelo vs Numancia II

Guijuelo beat Numancia II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos in Guijuelo.