Guijuelo 1–3 Lealtad: Result & Stats

Guijuelo

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Lealtad

5/22/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 8Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Guijuelo35%

×Draw32%

Lealtad33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuijueloExpected goals in this matchLealtad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.93

Guijuelo

0.97

Lealtad

0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

0.85

creates per match

0.85

1.00

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Guijuelo

0.85

Lealtad

0.85

allows per match

Guijuelo

1.00

Lealtad

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par

Lealtad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Lealtad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw

67%

Guijuelo or Lealtad

68%

Draw or Lealtad

65%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+

13%

Lealtad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals

62%

Guijuelo 2+ goals

25%

Guijuelo 3+ goals

7%

Lealtad 1+ goals

61%

Lealtad 2+ goals

24%

Lealtad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)

52%

Lealtad (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Lealtad away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 0.85 + Lealtad defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Lealtad attack 0.85 + Guijuelo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Guijuelo scores more

35%

level

32%

Lealtad scores more

33%

Guijuelo at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff