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Guijuelo vs Deportivo Alavés II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Alavés II
Deportivo Alavés II
9/14/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guijuelo61%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Alavés II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
1.61
Deportivo Alavés II
0.64

Guijuelo creates 152% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
1.43
Deportivo Alavés II
0.71

allows per match

Guijuelo
0.57
Deportivo Alavés II
1.79

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Deportivo Alavés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
85%
Guijuelo or Deportivo Alavés II
75%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés II
39%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
33%
Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
80%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
48%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
22%
Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals
47%
Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals
14%
Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
81%
Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Deportivo Alavés II away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 1.43 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.61

Deportivo Alavés II attack 0.71 + Guijuelo defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Guijuelo scores more
61%
level
25%
Deportivo Alavés II scores more
15%

Guijuelo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Guijuelo 1–0 Deportivo Alavés II

Guijuelo beat Deportivo Alavés II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo in Guijuelo.