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Guijuelo vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
10/17/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Guijuelo33%
×Draw29%
Celta de Vigo II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
1.07
Celta de Vigo II
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 120 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
0.85
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

allows per match

Guijuelo
1.00
Celta de Vigo II
1.29

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Celta de Vigo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
62%
Guijuelo or Celta de Vigo II
71%
Draw or Celta de Vigo II
67%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
13%
Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
66%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
29%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
9%
Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
69%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
33%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
46%
Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 0.85 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Guijuelo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guijuelo scores more
33%
level
29%
Celta de Vigo II scores more
38%

Celta de Vigo II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guijuelo vs Celta de Vigo II

Guijuelo and Celta de Vigo II drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo in Guijuelo.