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Guijuelo vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
10/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 9Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Guijuelo57%
×Draw25%
Atlético Tordesillas17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
1.58
Atlético Tordesillas
0.74

Guijuelo creates 114% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 110 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
2.09
Atlético Tordesillas
1.13

allows per match

Guijuelo
0.35
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
83%
Guijuelo or Atlético Tordesillas
75%
Draw or Atlético Tordesillas
43%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
31%
Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
79%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
47%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
21%
Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
52%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
17%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
77%
Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.35 · 34 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 2.09 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.58

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Guijuelo defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Guijuelo scores more
57%
level
25%
Atlético Tordesillas scores more
17%

Guijuelo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Guijuelo 3–0 Atlético Tordesillas

Guijuelo beat Atlético Tordesillas 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos in Guijuelo.