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Guijuelo vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
11/24/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guijuelo49%
×Draw27%
Athletic Club II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
1.42
Athletic Club II
0.89

Guijuelo creates 60% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 45 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
1.43
Athletic Club II
1.20

allows per match

Guijuelo
0.57
Athletic Club II
1.42

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
76%
Guijuelo or Athletic Club II
73%
Draw or Athletic Club II
51%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
24%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
76%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
41%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
17%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
59%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
22%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
68%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 1.43 + Athletic Club II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Athletic Club II attack 1.20 + Guijuelo defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Guijuelo scores more
49%
level
27%
Athletic Club II scores more
24%

Guijuelo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guijuelo 2 – 0 Athletic Club II

Guijuelo beat Athletic Club II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo in Guijuelo.