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Guijuelo vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
CANC
00:00
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
3/22/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guijuelo50%
×Draw28%
Arenas Getxo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
1.34
Arenas Getxo
0.78

Guijuelo creates 72% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
1.43
Arenas Getxo
1.00

allows per match

Guijuelo
0.57
Arenas Getxo
1.26

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
78%
Guijuelo or Arenas Getxo
72%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
50%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
24%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
74%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
39%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
15%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
54%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
18%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
70%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 1.43 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Arenas Getxo attack 1.00 + Guijuelo defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Guijuelo scores more
50%
level
28%
Arenas Getxo scores more
22%

Guijuelo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Guijuelo host Arenas Getxo

March 22, 2020: Guijuelo take on Arenas Getxo in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Guijuelo host Arenas Getxo at Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.