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Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Terracina Calcio — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
Guidonia Montecelio 1937
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Terracina Calcio
Terracina Calcio
10/23/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 8Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Guidonia Montecelio 193769%
×Draw19%
Terracina Calcio12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
2.15
Terracina Calcio
0.77

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 creates 179% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
2.12
Terracina Calcio
0.88

allows per match

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
0.65
Terracina Calcio
2.18

finishing

Guidonia Montecelio 1937+0.00on par
Terracina Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 ↓

Terracina Calcio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 or draw
88%
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 or Terracina Calcio
81%
Draw or Terracina Calcio
31%

Winning margin

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 wins by 2+
45%
Terracina Calcio wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1+ goals
88%
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 2+ goals
63%
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 3+ goals
36%
Terracina Calcio 1+ goals
54%
Terracina Calcio 2+ goals
18%
Terracina Calcio 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (draw refunded)
85%
Terracina Calcio (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Terracina Calcio away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 attack 2.12 + Terracina Calcio defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.15

Terracina Calcio attack 0.88 + Guidonia Montecelio 1937 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 scores more
69%
level
19%
Terracina Calcio scores more
12%

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Guidonia Montecelio 1937 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Terracina Calcio

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 beat Terracina Calcio 4-0 in Serie D - Girone G on October 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Guidonia Montecelio.