Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Sarnese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
Guidonia Montecelio 1937
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sarnese
Sarnese
11/3/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 10Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Guidonia Montecelio 193749%
×Draw26%
Sarnese26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
1.53
Sarnese
1.03

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
2.12
Sarnese
1.41

allows per match

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
0.65
Sarnese
0.94

finishing

Guidonia Montecelio 1937+0.00on par
Sarnese+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 ↓

Sarnese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 or draw
74%
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 or Sarnese
74%
Draw or Sarnese
51%

Winning margin

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 wins by 2+
25%
Sarnese wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1+ goals
78%
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 2+ goals
45%
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 3+ goals
20%
Sarnese 1+ goals
64%
Sarnese 2+ goals
28%
Sarnese 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (draw refunded)
66%
Sarnese (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Sarnese away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 attack 2.12 + Sarnese defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sarnese attack 1.41 + Guidonia Montecelio 1937 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 scores more
49%
level
26%
Sarnese scores more
26%

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guidonia Montecelio 1937 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1–1 Sarnese

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 and Sarnese drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Guidonia Montecelio.