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Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Puteolana — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
Guidonia Montecelio 1937
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Puteolana
Puteolana
12/8/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 15Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Guidonia Montecelio 193754%
×Draw24%
Puteolana21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
1.68
Puteolana
0.95

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
2.12
Puteolana
1.24

allows per match

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
0.65
Puteolana
1.24

finishing

Guidonia Montecelio 1937+0.00on par
Puteolana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 ↓

Puteolana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 or draw
79%
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 or Puteolana
76%
Draw or Puteolana
46%

Winning margin

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 wins by 2+
30%
Puteolana wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1+ goals
81%
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 2+ goals
50%
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 3+ goals
24%
Puteolana 1+ goals
61%
Puteolana 2+ goals
25%
Puteolana 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (draw refunded)
72%
Puteolana (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Puteolana away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 attack 2.12 + Puteolana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.68

Puteolana attack 1.24 + Guidonia Montecelio 1937 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 scores more
54%
level
24%
Puteolana scores more
21%

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Guidonia Montecelio 1937 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 3–1 Puteolana

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 beat Puteolana 3-1 in Serie D - Girone G on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Guidonia Montecelio.