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Guía vs La Cuadra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Guía
Guía
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
La Cuadra
La Cuadra
Jesús Farías 76'
Alberto Sanfiel 70'
Cristian 32'
Samuel 90'
Borja Granda 15'
3/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 11Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guía48%
×Draw25%
La Cuadra27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guía
1.62
La Cuadra
1.15

Guía creates 41% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 75 away

creates per match

Guía
1.43
La Cuadra
1.01

allows per match

Guía
1.29
La Cuadra
1.81

finishing

Guía+0.00on par
La Cuadra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guía ↓

La Cuadra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Guía or draw
73%
Guía or La Cuadra
75%
Draw or La Cuadra
52%

Winning margin

Guía wins by 2+
25%
La Cuadra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Guía 1+ goals
80%
Guía 2+ goals
48%
Guía 3+ goals
22%
La Cuadra 1+ goals
68%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
32%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guía (draw refunded)
64%
La Cuadra (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guía at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

La Cuadra away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guía attack 1.43 + La Cuadra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.62

La Cuadra attack 1.01 + Guía defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guía scores more
48%
level
25%
La Cuadra scores more
27%

Guía at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Jesús Farías← Kilian
15'
Borja Granda
30'
Alberto Sanfiel← Nacho
32'
Cristian
53'
Aythami← Luisja
53'
Melo← Rubén Mendoza
70'
Airam Pérez← Ramiro de Lillo
70'
Alberto Sanfiel
76'
Jesús Farías
77'
Jonathan Sesma← Daniel Liñares
87'
Dani Martínez← Sandro
90'
Samuel
Guía
La
Rodrigo
Rodrigo
Héctor Sánchez
Sánchez
Borja Granda
⚽
Granda
Alberto
Alberto
Daniel Liñares
▼
Liñares
Amine
Amine
Ramiro de Lillo
▼
Lillo
I. Thioub
Thioub
Samuel
⚽
Samuel
Borja Vera
Vera
Sandro
▼
Sandro
Juan Carlos
Carlos
Javi Mejías
Mejías
Rivero
Rivero
Nacho
▼
Nacho
Luisja
▼
Luisja
Maceo
Maceo
Delgado
Delgado
Cristian
⚽
Cristian
Alexander Martel
Martel
Kilian
▼
Kilian
Rubén Mendoza
▼
Mendoza
14'▲Jesús Farías←▼Kilian
30'▲Alberto Sanfiel←▼Nacho
53'▲Aythami←▼Luisja
53'▲Melo←▼Rubén Mendoza

Guía substitutes

FaríasSanfielAythamiMelo
Miguel Santana
Manager: Miguel Santana
70'▲Airam Pérez←▼Ramiro de Lillo
77'▲Jonathan Sesma←▼Daniel Liñares
87'▲Dani Martínez←▼Sandro

La Cuadra substitutes

PérezSesmaMartínez

Match Recap: Guía vs La Cuadra

Guía beat La Cuadra 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 21, 2021.

Goals: Borja Granda (15'), Cristian (32'), Alberto Sanfiel (70'), Jesús Farías (76'), Samuel (90').

The match was played at Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria in Las Palmas.