Guía 2–1 Güímar: Result & Stats

Guía

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Güímar

Roberto 38'

Jesús Farías 30'

F. Valencia 63'

5/1/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guía58%

×Draw23%

Güímar20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuíaExpected goals in this matchGüímar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.99

Guía

1.86

Güímar

0.99

Guía creates 88% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

1.43

creates per match

0.68

1.29

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Guía

1.43

Güímar

0.68

allows per match

Guía

1.29

Güímar

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guía+0.00on par

Güímar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guía ↓

Güímar →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Guía or draw

80%

Guía or Güímar

77%

Draw or Güímar

42%

Winning margin

Guía wins by 2+

33%

Güímar wins by 2+

Team goals

Guía 1+ goals

84%

Guía 2+ goals

55%

Guía 3+ goals

28%

Güímar 1+ goals

63%

Güímar 2+ goals

26%

Güímar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Guía (draw refunded)

74%

Güímar (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guía at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Güímar away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guía attack 1.43 + Güímar defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.86

Güímar attack 0.68 + Guía defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Guía scores more

58%

level

23%

Güímar scores more

20%

Guía at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Guía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Jesús Farías

38'

Roberto

46'

Melo← Kilian

55'

Omar Díaz← David Flaco

63'

F. Valencia

65'

Gaizka← Rosquete

65'

Lio← P. Dadzie

73'

Alberto Sanfiel← B. Ibarguen

76'

Rubén Bretón← Javi Torres

80'

Rubén Mendoza← Cristian

Guía

Güímar

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Iván Mendoza

46'▲Melo←▼Kilian

55'▲Omar Díaz←▼David Flaco

73'▲Alberto Sanfiel←▼B. Ibarguen

80'▲Rubén Mendoza←▼Cristian

Guía substitutes

MeloDíazSanfielMendoza

Manager: Juan Jesus Alonso

65'▲Gaizka←▼Rosquete

65'▲Lio←▼P. Dadzie

76'▲Rubén Bretón←▼Javi Torres

Güímar substitutes

GaizkaLioBretón