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Guelson FC vs Bravos do Maquis FC — Girabola 2019

Guelson FC
Guelson FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
2/15/2026GirabolaGirabola · Round 15Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guelson FC31%
×Draw28%
Bravos do Maquis FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guelson FC
1.04
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.23

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 106 away

creates per match

Guelson FC
1.00
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.95

allows per match

Guelson FC
1.50
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.09

finishing

Guelson FC+0.00on par
Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guelson FC ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guelson FC or draw
60%
Guelson FC or Bravos do Maquis FC
72%
Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC
69%

Winning margin

Guelson FC wins by 2+
12%
Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Guelson FC 1+ goals
65%
Guelson FC 2+ goals
28%
Guelson FC 3+ goals
9%
Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
71%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
35%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Guelson FC (draw refunded)
43%
Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guelson FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guelson FC attack 1.00 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.95 + Guelson FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guelson FC scores more
31%
level
28%
Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
40%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Guelson FC 0–1 Bravos do Maquis FC

Bravos do Maquis FC beat Guelson FC 1-0 in Girabola on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.