Guédiawaye 1–0 Mbour Petite Côte: Result & Stats

Guédiawaye

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mbour Petite Côte

2/13/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade Amadou Barry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Guédiawaye46%

×Draw31%

Mbour Petite Côte23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuédiawayeExpected goals in this matchMbour Petite Côte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.74

Guédiawaye

1.17

Mbour Petite Côte

0.74

Guédiawaye creates 58% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 33 away

1.03

creates per match

0.48

1.00

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Guédiawaye

1.03

Mbour Petite Côte

0.48

allows per match

Guédiawaye

1.00

Mbour Petite Côte

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guédiawaye+0.00on par

Mbour Petite Côte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guédiawaye ↓

Mbour Petite Côte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Guédiawaye or draw

77%

Guédiawaye or Mbour Petite Côte

69%

Draw or Mbour Petite Côte

54%

Winning margin

Guédiawaye wins by 2+

20%

Mbour Petite Côte wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Guédiawaye 1+ goals

69%

Guédiawaye 2+ goals

33%

Guédiawaye 3+ goals

11%

Mbour Petite Côte 1+ goals

52%

Mbour Petite Côte 2+ goals

17%

Mbour Petite Côte 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Guédiawaye (draw refunded)

66%

Mbour Petite Côte (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guédiawaye at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.00 · 69 matches

Mbour Petite Côte away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guédiawaye attack 1.03 + Mbour Petite Côte defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mbour Petite Côte attack 0.48 + Guédiawaye defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Guédiawaye scores more

46%

level

31%

Mbour Petite Côte scores more

23%

Guédiawaye at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Guédiawaye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff