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Guédiawaye vs Gorée — Ligue 1 2019

Guédiawaye
Guédiawaye
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gorée
Gorée
6/29/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 30Stade Municipal de Yoff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Guédiawaye37%
×Draw32%
Gorée30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guédiawaye
0.98
Gorée
0.85

Guédiawaye creates 15% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 88 away

creates per match

Guédiawaye
1.03
Gorée
0.70

allows per match

Guédiawaye
1.00
Gorée
0.94

finishing

Guédiawaye+0.00on par
Gorée+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guédiawaye ↓

Gorée →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Guédiawaye or draw
70%
Guédiawaye or Gorée
68%
Draw or Gorée
63%

Winning margin

Guédiawaye wins by 2+
14%
Gorée wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Guédiawaye 1+ goals
62%
Guédiawaye 2+ goals
26%
Guédiawaye 3+ goals
8%
Gorée 1+ goals
57%
Gorée 2+ goals
21%
Gorée 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Guédiawaye (draw refunded)
55%
Gorée (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guédiawaye at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.00 · 69 matches

Gorée away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.94 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guédiawaye attack 1.03 + Gorée defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Gorée attack 0.70 + Guédiawaye defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guédiawaye scores more
37%
level
32%
Gorée scores more
30%

Guédiawaye at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guédiawaye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Guédiawaye 2–0 Gorée

Guédiawaye beat Gorée 2-0 in Ligue 1 on June 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Yoff in Dakar.