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Gucha Stars vs Vihiga United FC — Super League 2018

Gucha Stars
Gucha Stars
FT
2 – 1
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
10/25/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gucha Stars52%
×Draw25%
Vihiga United FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gucha Stars
1.58
Vihiga United FC
0.96

Gucha Stars creates 65% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 55 away

creates per match

Gucha Stars
1.39
Vihiga United FC
0.80

allows per match

Gucha Stars
1.11
Vihiga United FC
1.78

finishing

Gucha Stars+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gucha Stars ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gucha Stars or draw
77%
Gucha Stars or Vihiga United FC
75%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
48%

Winning margin

Gucha Stars wins by 2+
27%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gucha Stars 1+ goals
79%
Gucha Stars 2+ goals
47%
Gucha Stars 3+ goals
21%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
62%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
25%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gucha Stars (draw refunded)
69%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gucha Stars at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gucha Stars attack 1.39 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vihiga United FC attack 0.80 + Gucha Stars defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gucha Stars scores more
52%
level
25%
Vihiga United FC scores more
23%

Gucha Stars at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gucha Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Gucha Stars 2–1 Vihiga United FC

Gucha Stars beat Vihiga United FC 2-1 in Super League on October 25, 2025.