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Gubbio vs Rimini — Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Gubbio
Gubbio
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rimini
Rimini
5/7/2024Serie C - Promotion - Play-offsSerie C - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundStadio Pietro Barbetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gubbio36%
×Draw35%
Rimini29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gubbio
0.88
Rimini
0.75

Gubbio creates 17% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Gubbio
1.00
Rimini
0.75

allows per match

Gubbio
0.75
Rimini
0.75

finishing

Gubbio+0.00on par
Rimini+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gubbio ↓

Rimini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Gubbio or draw
71%
Gubbio or Rimini
65%
Draw or Rimini
64%

Winning margin

Gubbio wins by 2+
13%
Rimini wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gubbio 1+ goals
59%
Gubbio 2+ goals
22%
Gubbio 3+ goals
6%
Rimini 1+ goals
53%
Rimini 2+ goals
17%
Rimini 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gubbio (draw refunded)
56%
Rimini (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gubbio at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Rimini away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gubbio attack 1.00 + Rimini defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Rimini attack 0.75 + Gubbio defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gubbio scores more
36%
level
35%
Rimini scores more
29%

Gubbio at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gubbio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gubbio 0 – 1 Rimini

Rimini beat Gubbio 1-0 in Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs on May 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Pietro Barbetti in Gubbio.