Guayaquil 3–2 Manta FC: Result & Stats

Guayaquil

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Manta FC

9/15/2023

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 30Estadio Los Chirijos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Guayaquil39%

×Draw29%

Manta FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuayaquilExpected goals in this matchManta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.99

Guayaquil

1.15

Manta FC

0.99

Guayaquil creates 16% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 104 away

1.02

creates per match

0.91

1.07

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Guayaquil

1.02

Manta FC

0.91

allows per match

Guayaquil

1.07

Manta FC

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guayaquil+0.00on par

Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil ↓

Manta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Guayaquil or draw

69%

Guayaquil or Manta FC

71%

Draw or Manta FC

61%

Winning margin

Guayaquil wins by 2+

16%

Manta FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guayaquil 1+ goals

68%

Guayaquil 2+ goals

32%

Guayaquil 3+ goals

11%

Manta FC 1+ goals

63%

Manta FC 2+ goals

26%

Manta FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil (draw refunded)

56%

Manta FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil attack 1.02 + Manta FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Manta FC attack 0.91 + Guayaquil defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guayaquil scores more

39%

level

29%

Manta FC scores more

31%

Guayaquil at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guayaquil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff