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Guayaquil City FC vs Vargas Torres — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Vargas Torres
Vargas Torres
J. Caicedo 45'
A. Naula 17'
M. Bolaños 11' (pen)
8/2/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 22Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Guayaquil City FC60%
×Draw26%
Vargas Torres14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guayaquil City FC
1.50
Vargas Torres
0.58

Guayaquil City FC creates 159% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.90
Vargas Torres
0.59

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC
0.57
Vargas Torres
1.11

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par
Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Vargas Torres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw
86%
Guayaquil City FC or Vargas Torres
74%
Draw or Vargas Torres
40%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
32%
Vargas Torres wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
78%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
44%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
19%
Vargas Torres 1+ goals
44%
Vargas Torres 2+ goals
12%
Vargas Torres 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
81%
Vargas Torres (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.57 · 21 matches

Vargas Torres away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.90 + Vargas Torres defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vargas Torres attack 0.59 + Guayaquil City FC defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more
60%
level
26%
Vargas Torres scores more
14%

Guayaquil City FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. BolañosPenalty
17'
A. Naula
45'
J. Caicedo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Guayaquil City FC 3–0 Vargas Torres

Guayaquil City FC beat Vargas Torres 3-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 2, 2024.

Goals: M. Bolaños (11' pen), A. Naula (17'), J. Caicedo (45').

The match was played at Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt in Guayaquil.