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Guayaquil City FC vs Universidad Catolica — Liga Pro 2026

Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
Preview
20:00
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
7/26/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 22
Big match
36%
Guayaquil City FC
model favours
36%27%36%

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Guayaquil City FC36%
×Draw27%
Universidad Catolica36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guayaquil City FC
1.25
Universidad Catolica
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 132 away

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.26
Universidad Catolica
1.42

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.09
Universidad Catolica
1.24

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw
64%
Guayaquil City FC or Universidad Catolica
73%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
64%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
16%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
71%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
36%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
13%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
71%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
36%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
50%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.09 · 94 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.26 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Universidad Catolica attack 1.42 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more
36%
level
27%
Universidad Catolica scores more
36%

Guayaquil City FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Universidad Catolica fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Guayaquil City FC
Balanced
Universidad Catolica
Possession-dominant
49%Possession61%
77%Pass accuracy84%
6.7ShotsBiggest gap14.0
—xG1.67
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Guayaquil City FCUniversidad Catolica

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Guayaquil City FC
3
Draws
5
Universidad Catolica
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 70%
1–40–00–32–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
FC
DWLLD
Catolica
WWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guayaquil City FC vs Universidad Catolica — Match Preview

Guayaquil City FC face Universidad Catolica on July 26, 2026 in this Liga Pro fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.