Guayaquil City FC 0–0 Universidad Catolica

Guayaquil City FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad Catolica

8/11/2023

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 2Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Guayaquil City FC36%

×Draw27%

Universidad Catolica36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guayaquil City FCExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

Guayaquil City FC

1.25

Universidad Catolica

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 134 away

1.25

creates per match

1.42

1.07

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC

1.25

Universidad Catolica

1.42

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC

1.07

Universidad Catolica

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw

64%

Guayaquil City FC or Universidad Catolica

73%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

64%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+

16%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals

71%

Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals

36%

Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals

13%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

71%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

36%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)

50%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 95 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.26 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.25 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Universidad Catolica attack 1.42 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more

36%

level

27%

Universidad Catolica scores more

36%

Guayaquil City FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Narváez

Guayaquil City FC · D

7.7

Match Events

27'

Joffré Escobar

45+2'

Mauro Díaz

46'

Klebinho← W. Vargas

46'

J. Ayovi← J. Humanante

50'

52'

64'

64'

66'

77'

77'

D. Nazareno← B. Angulo

81'

Joffré EscobarPenalty confirmed

85'

S. Plaza← J. Rezabala

87'

A. Preciado← M. Parrales

90+2'

D. Clavijo← A. Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuayaquilUniversidad

Overview

52%Possession48%

5Total Shots13

2Corners4

20Fouls18

Shots

5Total Shots13

3On Target0

1Off Target7

1Blocked6

2Inside Box5

3Outside Box8

Passing

52%Possession48%

383Total Passes358

292Accurate Passes277

76%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

20Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2