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Guayaquil City FC vs San Antonio — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
San Antonio
San Antonio
3/21/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 2Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Guayaquil City FC59%
×Draw26%
San Antonio15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guayaquil City FC
1.50
San Antonio
0.61

Guayaquil City FC creates 146% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 43 away

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.89
San Antonio
0.65

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC
0.57
San Antonio
1.12

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par
San Antonio+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

San Antonio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw
85%
Guayaquil City FC or San Antonio
74%
Draw or San Antonio
41%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
31%
San Antonio wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
78%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
44%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
19%
San Antonio 1+ goals
46%
San Antonio 2+ goals
13%
San Antonio 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
80%
San Antonio (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

San Antonio away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.12 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.89 + San Antonio defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.50

San Antonio attack 0.65 + Guayaquil City FC defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more
59%
level
26%
San Antonio scores more
15%

Guayaquil City FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Guayaquil City FC 4–0 San Antonio

Guayaquil City FC beat San Antonio 4-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on March 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt in Guayaquil.