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Guayaquil City FC vs Manta FC — Liga Pro 2026

Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
Preview
21:45
Manta FC
Manta FC
7/19/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 20
Big match
49%
Guayaquil City FC
model favours
49%27%24%

Manta FC score first in only 31% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Guayaquil City FC49%
×Draw27%
Manta FC24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guayaquil City FC
1.39
Manta FC
0.88

Guayaquil City FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 29 away

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC
0.91
Manta FC
0.66

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.09
Manta FC
1.86

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par
Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Manta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw
76%
Guayaquil City FC or Manta FC
73%
Draw or Manta FC
51%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
24%
Manta FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
75%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
40%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
16%
Manta FC 1+ goals
59%
Manta FC 2+ goals
22%
Manta FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
67%
Manta FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.91 + Manta FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.39

Manta FC attack 0.66 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more
49%
level
27%
Manta FC scores more
24%

Guayaquil City FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 31% of Manta FC’s matches
  • Manta FC fall short of their xG (0.6 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
DWLLD
FC
LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Guayaquil City FC host Manta FC

July 19, 2026: Guayaquil City FC take on Manta FC in Liga Pro. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.