Guayaquil City FC 4–1 Imbabura: Result & Stats

Guayaquil City FC

FT

4 – 1

Imbabura

11/8/2014

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 41Estadio La Fortaleza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Guayaquil City FC62%

×Draw22%

Imbabura16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guayaquil City FCExpected goals in this matchImbabura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.83

Guayaquil City FC

1.90

Imbabura

0.83

Guayaquil City FC creates 129% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 23 away

1.89

creates per match

1.09

0.57

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC

1.89

Imbabura

1.09

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC

0.57

Imbabura

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Imbabura+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Imbabura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw

84%

Guayaquil City FC or Imbabura

78%

Draw or Imbabura

38%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+

37%

Imbabura wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals

85%

Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals

56%

Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals

29%

Imbabura 1+ goals

56%

Imbabura 2+ goals

20%

Imbabura 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)

80%

Imbabura (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Imbabura away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.89 + Imbabura defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.90

Imbabura attack 1.09 + Guayaquil City FC defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more

62%

level

22%

Imbabura scores more

16%

Guayaquil City FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff